Trying To Make Sense Of Edwin Encarnacion's Market, Which Seems To Be Shrinking By The Day
After the World Series, Edwin Encarnacion became the top dog on the free agent market, expected to land the most lucrative deal out of any free agent this offseason.
The first week of November, we learned via his agent that Encarnacion was in search of a five-year, $125 million deal. It’ll be a fucking miracle if he comes anywhere close to that now. Even back then, I figured that was a pipe dream for a player entering their age-34 season. Money’s whatever when you’re a big market club, but where you start playing with fire is when you’ve committed a large average annual value to a player in their age-37 and 38 seasons, which is what you’d be doing with a five-year commitment to Encarnacion.
At the start of all this, there was no shortage of suitors for Encarnacion’s services. You had plenty of teams with deep pockets and postseason aspirations as early as 2017. You had the Yankees, the Astros, the Blue Jays, the Rangers, and the Red Sox are always looming, regardless of how disinterested they claim to be. One by one, let’s look at the list of who Encarnacion’s suitors were at the start of the offseason.
Astros: Ever since Twitter became a thing, every offseason, there’s always the one big free agent signing where the 15-year-old kid has the information, or the Spanish-speaking writer that nobody’s ever heard of has a report, or the dude who met an agent at a bar and got the scoop after a few beers throws a tweet out there, but you never know what’s legit and what’s not. That was Encarnacion this year. There were a few random reports that he was going to the Astros, and that it was a sure thing, done deal. Then they signed Carlos Beltran to be their DH next year. Now, does that completely take them out of the Encarnacion sweepstakes? Not quite. As Ken Rosenthal suggested, Houston could have Beltran DH, move Yulieski Gurriel to left field, and put Encarnacion at first base. They’d have to trade Evan Gattis, because they also traded for Brian McCann to be behind the plate primarily, but they could make it work. It’s just a matter of if they’d want to make that financial commitment, and that doesn’t seem likely.
Yankees: After the Astros landed Beltran, I assumed that removed Houston from the Encarnacion chase, which, to me, made the Yankees the next most logical spot for him to land. And then they signed Matt Holliday to a one-year deal worth $13 million a day later. This makes sense, but at the same time it doesn’t. I had read that Holliday was New York’s backup plan at DH, which means that obviously they were interested, but a fallback plan for what? Encarnacion? Why did the Yankees go to Holliday as their Plan B if their Plan A is still out there? Their Plan A wasn’t Beltran, it sounds like. The Yankees never made Beltran an offer, and their interest only went as far as “kicking the tires”, which doesn’t seem like very much interest at all. Is Encarnacion’s asking price so unreasonable that he’s costing himself major players in his market?
Blue Jays: About a week ago, Encarnacion’s agent said that the Blue Jays are “showing Edwin the most love.” If that’s true, then he’s fucked, because we already know that the best offer that Toronto made to Encarnacion was four years and $80 million, which he rejected. If that’s the “most love” that he’s gotten, then clearly no team is going to come anywhere close to his five-year, $125 million asking price. That, and the Blue Jays have since taken that offer off the table, so as far as we know, the best offer he’s gotten doesn’t even exist anymore. You also have to consider that the only team, as far as we know, who stepped up to the plate with a competitive offer responded immediately to Encarnacion rejecting that offer by signing DH Kendrys Morales, and then added a first baseman in Steve Pearce today, effectively eliminating themselves as a suitor for Encarnacion. Sorry, Jays fans. It looks like Toronto has officially moved on.
Rangers: Now you’re getting down to those, “Meh, I guess it seems like a fit,” kind of teams. The Rangers need a DH after losing Beltran to the Astros, so naturally one would assume that there could be a fit here for Encarnacion. However, Rangers GM Jon Daniels has said that he wants to fill the first base/DH position with internal options like Ryan Rua, Joey Gallo, and Jurickson Profar. I don’t know if I buy that, though. None of those three players are middle of the order bats, at least not in 2017. But it’s not like Texas will be in rough shape with their 3-4-5 hitters consisting of something like Adrian Beltre, Rougned Odor and Jonathan Lucroy. Those three players combined to hit .287 with an .844 OPS in 2016. Sure, it’d be nice to add Encarnacion into that mix, but they don’t necessarily have to. In regards to whether or not Encarnacion could end up in Arlington, Buster Olney tweeted: “Sources who familiar with him says Rangers could be an interesting match.”
Red Sox: If you believe all that we’ve been hearing and reading as it relates to Boston’s interest in Encarnacion, then the Red Sox were never really in on him at all. I’m sure they’ve done their due diligence and established contact with the player’s agent, because that’s standard procedure, but as far as legitimate interest goes, there hasn’t been any. And that kind of blows my mind. Sure, I can see them not wanting to enter the fray at five years and $125 million, but if the Yankees are out, the Astros are out, the Blue Jays are out, and the Rangers are showing minimal interest, why are the Red Sox not pouncing on the opportunity to snatch up Encarnacion at a price tag that’s far less than what was previously anticipated? I’m not even advocating that they go out and sign the guy no matter what, but at least show some friggin’ interest here. They have a clear need for a bat like his after David Ortiz’s retirement, and they have the money to get it done, too. They’ll shell out $95 million to fat fuck Pablo Sandoval to do absolutely nothing, but then they want to cry about the luxury tax when there’s a 40+ home run guy on the free agent market. Bananaland.
I find this implosion of Encarnacion’s market to be fascinating, so I kind of have to wonder how the hell it’s gotten to this point. How does arguably the top free agent this winter become a player with a dried up market with very few serious suitors remaining, just one month into the offseason? There’s two major factors here, and they kind of go hand in hand. Encarnacion rejected a qualifying offer from Toronto, which means that any new team that wants to sign him must cough up a draft pick in order to do so.
Not wanting to lose a draft pick is one factor, but the fact that there are several other options that won’t cost a draft pick, AND as much years or dollars, is another. Beltran was traded mid-season, so he was not eligible to be made a qualifying offer, and the Royals and Cardinals didn’t make qualifying offers to Morales and Holliday, respectively. No draft pick compensation was tied to any of the three DH-types who have signed already, which made them more enticing to the Astros, Blue Jays, and Yankees. Beyond that, those three players signed for a combined five years and $62 million. No draft pick compensation, short years, manageable dollars.
The thing is, this sucks right now for Encarnacion, but it could theoretically get worse, because there is another DH/first baseman type with no draft pick compensation tied to him, who has yet to sign. Not only that, but the teams that have shown the most interest in this player are also the teams that are seemingly the only suitors that Encarnacion has left. That man is Mike Napoli, and the Red Sox and Rangers have expressed “serious” interest in him. If Napoli takes another suitor off the board for Encarnacion, then what does he really have left? One team? Yikes.